This video of "Is Ireland's climate policy credible given Ireland's signature to the Paris Agreement?" is an 'Ignite format' presentation, only 5 minutes long with 20 slides auto-advancing every 15 seconds – a challenging format for presenting research!
Ireland's impact on the global climate up to 2050 will be measured by the total cumulative CO2 emissions over the 35 years until 2050. To date, the upcoming National Mitigation Plan is to be based on government's National Policy Position or NPP (2014). The analysis here, by Paul Price, looks at Ireland's climate policy choices and resultant possible emission pathways in the context of: the Paris Agreement "well below 2ºC" climate target; the current EPA projections to 2035; and the likely emissions paths assuming "steady per cent decarbonisation effort" to 2050 for the NPP; and the EU targets of a cut of 80% to 95% by 2050 relative to 1990. A cut of 80% by 2050 in any sector or collection of sectors implies sustained annual decarbonisation rates of about 5% per year, every year, starting now. Any delay in achieving such a rate increases the total emissions thereby increasing Ireland's responsibility for climate impacts.
According to the Stockholm Environment Institute, Ireland's (and the EU's) 'fair share' of the remaining 2ºC global carbon budget are likely to be exhausted by 2023 if emissions continue at the current level. See http://calculator.climateequityreference.org Like the SEI calculator, the analysis in this presentation includes non-CO2 in the cumulative total because, like long-lived CO2, the reduction of short-term climate pollutants like methane requires substantial and sustained reductions starting as soon as possible to reduce resultant global warming – given the time it will take to reduce the numbers of cattle and sheep causing these methane emissions.
Clearly a huge co-ordinated effort involving all sectors and all of Irish society will be needed to begin and sustain reductions in emissions in line with the climate targets we have agreed to align our policy with. This will affect our entire economy and will need careful planning to maintain social stability in the necessary rapid transition to a zero carbon future.
This 5 minute, 20 slide 'Ignite' presentation (auto-advancing with 15 sec per slide) was first given at the 2016 Climate Change Congress at NUI Galway held by the Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security Society.